Syed Muhammad Atif
Department of Economics, University of Sydney
Sardar Mohazzam
Government and Public Policy Department, National Defense University, Islamabad
July 7, 2012
Abstract:
The mantra of inclusive growth is taking over the public policy debates addressing poverty alleviation and sustained development in the developing world. In order to reduce poverty substantially, rapid pace of growth is not only necessary, but it should be sustainable in the long run and broad-based across sectors, nonetheless, inclusive of country’s labour force at large. Poverty and growth were much discussed and analysed in separation by policymakers in the previous decades. Inclusive growth strategy is an integration of these two strands of analyses implying relationship between the macro and micro determinants of growth.
This paper examines the nature of relationship between the macroeconomic and social-development indicators by using a Multiple Regression Framework and Vector Auto Regression Model, as proposed by Toda-Yamamoto, is used to determine the direction of causality between the key macroeconomic variables of Pakistan over the period of 1997-98s to 2009-10. The paper critically examines Inclusive growth paradigm ─ for market led growth, and suggests its weaknesses which can be addressed through review of the pro-poor goals of economic policy of Post Washington Consensus (PWC). Finally, the paper urges to explore the myths and realities of inclusive growth strategies for policymakers in Pakistan to identify and prioritize the Pakistan specific constraints i.e. Low spending on health and education, promote growth in agriculture and rural development for sustained and inclusive growth.
The mantra of inclusive growth is taking over the public policy debates addressing poverty alleviation and sustained development in the developing world. In order to reduce poverty substantially, rapid pace of growth is not only necessary, but it should be sustainable in the long run and broad-based across sectors, nonetheless, inclusive of country’s labour force at large. Poverty and growth were much discussed and analysed in separation by policymakers in the previous decades. Inclusive growth strategy is an integration of these two strands of analyses implying relationship between the macro and micro determinants of growth.
This paper examines the nature of relationship between the macroeconomic and social-development indicators by using a Multiple Regression Framework and Vector Auto Regression Model, as proposed by Toda-Yamamoto, is used to determine the direction of causality between the key macroeconomic variables of Pakistan over the period of 1997-98s to 2009-10. The paper critically examines Inclusive growth paradigm ─ for market led growth, and suggests its weaknesses which can be addressed through review of the pro-poor goals of economic policy of Post Washington Consensus (PWC). Finally, the paper urges to explore the myths and realities of inclusive growth strategies for policymakers in Pakistan to identify and prioritize the Pakistan specific constraints i.e. Low spending on health and education, promote growth in agriculture and rural development for sustained and inclusive growth.
